The Race to Mars: How Close Are We in 2025?
With the progress of reusable rockets pioneered by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a new space race is heating up. We have discussed the near-term outlook in the dedicated article “To The Moon And Mars—Mapping The New Space Race.”
Reusable rockets have reduced the cost of reaching orbit tenfold and might do so again in the upcoming years.
Source: ARK Research
As SpaceX’s Starship is undergoing tests and will likely soon perform in-orbit refueling, travel to Mars will become a distinct possibility in the upcoming 5-10 years. After enough robotic flights to deliver supplies to the Red Planet, the first manned flight could be considered.
Because it is no longer just a mere theory, how such a first manned mission to Mars should go is hotly debated. Most recently famous astrophysicist Lawrence Krauss called Musk’s plans for Mars exploration “The Mars Vanity Project” sparking an argument between the two men.
“This plan is logistically ludicrous, strategically ill advised, and scientifically and politically divisive and dangerous.”
Lawrence Krauss
At the heart of the debate on how to go to Mars, or even if it wise to try to do so in the first place, is that the planet is very hostile to Earth-born life: radiations, almost no atmosphere, brutally cold temperatures, this is simply not a place able to sustain large settlements as it is.
This is why scientists and science-fiction writers have long dreamed of turning Mars into an Earth-like planet with acceptable temperatures, liquid water, and a breathable atmosphere. Determining if it is possible will likely decide whether any tentative attempt to create a self-sustaining Martian colony is worth the effort.
Why Mars Is So Hostile to Human Life
Mars is the 4th planet in the solar system, and has a surface area roughly equivalent to all of Earth’s continents combined.
Source: Fourth Millennium
Currently, Mars is more hostile to human life than any place on Earth, including the most remote and uninhabited depths of Antarctica. It can overall be described as a dead planet, with not only no clear sign of life but also no significant geological activity.
This lack of activity in the planet’s core is the first major problem for living on Mars. As there is no strong molten core of iron like on Earth, Mars has essentially no magnetic field to shield it from the solar and interstellar radiation.
The interruption of geothermal activity on Mars is due to its smaller size, with the gravity being only at 1/3rd of Earth. The combination of lower gravity and no magnetic shield has led the planet to lose most of its atmosphere, with the air pressure on Mars just at 6 millibar, or 166th of Earth.
The atmosphere is almost entirely made of CO2, with only a small amount of nitrogen and oxygen. The low atmospheric pressure also means that liquid water is currently impossible, and warming ice turns directly into vapor.
Mars is generally considered lifeless, although some recent observations have challenged this assumption, with the possibility of some forms of bacterial life now considered.
Its soils also contain large amounts of perchlorate (ClO4-), a very oxidizing molecule, which might be an issue for any cultivation of plants in Martian soil. So directly growing potatoes like Matt Damon in The Martian is unlikely.
Why Terraforming Mars Is Worth Considering
Enthusiasts about Martian colonization and terraformation will have a multitude of reasons to justify their plan to expand human civilization into space.
The one most often mentioned by Elon Musk is to have a “backup planet”, that would be far enough from Earth that any catastrophe here would not have consequences on Mars.
Another reason is simply the call for adventure and expansion for its own sake.
And potentially, making it rich by acquiring a whole planet for the nations managing this technological feat can be a good justification in itself, especially as the space race is heating up between the USA and its allies on one side, and Russia and China on the other.
Other reasons that can be mentioned are philosophical or religious goals of “spreading life”, or the pursuit of scientific achievement and the discovery of the Universe.
Arguments Against Colonizing and Terraforming Mars
Too Soon
Probably the strongest argument against going to Mars on Musk’s timeline is that we are seemingly rushing to do it before we have sufficient knowledge about Mars, the technology to do so, and the experience of living off the world that could be acquired on the Moon near Earth.
Associated with this argument is that a manned mission to Mars distracts key resources from more feasible projects, like the first permanently inhabited Moon base.
In the context of tightening the budget, this could just collapse many unmanned scientific missions. And even the Artemis mission, the flagship of American manned space plans, seems to be running into multiple issues and delays.
The Trump administration is essentially proposing to disband NASA’s entire unmanned science program in favor of human space missions.
The astrophysics directorate would be cut by two-thirds, and the overall science budget for the 2026 fiscal year would be cut by nearly half, to US$3.9 billion.
Lawrence Krauss
Preserving Space Clean
Scientific study of Mars could require us to keep it as pristine as possible. If there are native life forms, avoiding contamination of the local biosphere or even bringing back Martian microbes to Earth is even more important.
This is a strong argument from a scientific point of view, but it seems to be on the losing side of economic and political arguments for a Martian colony.
How Terraforming Mars Could Make It Habitable
Despite the objection, the temptation of an entirely new world is probably going to be too much to resist. And there is also the counterargument that the very act of trying will move science a lot further. Something hard to fully dismiss as space technology had mostly stagnated until Elon Musk came and proved the impossible was actually feasible.
Starting with a Self-Sustaining Mars Colony
The first observation is that for any megaproject as ambitious as transforming an entire planet, some local manpower will be needed, at least as long as AIs have not completely reached the level of human initiative and reactivity to unknown conditions.
So the first step will indeed, as Musk claims, be to set up a self-sustaining Martian colony. How it could be built and, more importantly, be viable economically is something we discussed in detail in “The Future Martian Economy”. The short version would be a mix of:
- Research
- Space tourism
- Rare materials
- High-Value Industries
- Remote Work
Still, it will be a difficult and likely short life for these first colonists, with just too much work, too much radiation, and a lot of deadly incidents.
Improving Mars
Warming Mars to Support Life
The first step to make Mars remotely viable is to increase the temperature and the atmospheric pressure, making simple bacterial and plant life viable, while also greatly reducing the difficulties of everyday life for the first colonists. And both air and warmth are tightly linked together.
One option could be to fill the atmosphere with artificial levels of either dust, or metallic nanorods made of aluminum or iron. These would warm up the atmosphere, causing the frozen CO2 trapped in the polar ice caps to be released, creating a runaway greenhouse effect.
Source: SciTechDialy
Another option could be to use a solar mirror in orbit to melt these ice caps and reach the same result. Using nuclear explosions to melt the ice had even been considered at the height of the Cold War, but would likely not be a very popular method today.
Lastly, another option would be to add gas to the atmosphere. Small asteroids could be dropped on Mars’ surface, disintegrating and releasing a lot of gases.
Or maybe industrial-scale production of methane and other high-power greenhouse gases could be the small nudge that tips the equation toward a runaway greenhouse effect.
Unlocking Water Sources on Mars
For a long time, changing the comets’ trajectory so they could hit Mars, as they are mostly made of dust and ice, seemed the only way to bring enough water onto the dead planet.
As water is a powerful greenhouse gas, it could also help increase the temperature.
However, gigantic reserves of water have been discovered in Mars’s underground layers, enough to fill oceans on the planet’s surface.
Source: SciTechDialy
Unfortunately, this water is locked under 11-20 km of rocks, so it might be very hard to reach.
But in the long run, it might be the best bet for bringing a massive enough amount of water to the surface to recreate Mars’ oceans. It is also possible that if we missed until now such a vast quantity of water, smaller pockets could be reached at much lower depths.
Creating a Magnetic Field to Shield Mars
Ideally, the last feat of geoengineering required to create a stable and safe environment on Mars is giving it in some form or another a magnetic field to protect its atmosphere from being blown away by solar winds.
It would also drastically reduce the level of radiation at the surface level, which would be the final piece in the puzzle to allow colonists to live normally on the surface, instead of hiding in subterranean buildings for most of the day.
Potentially, this could be done by creating a gigantic orbital infrastructure powered by the sun itself.
Source: Phys.org
This would however require the kind of superconducting material and space-building infrastructure that are completely beyond our grasp for now.
What a Fully Terraformed Mars Might Look Like
The Changing Geography of a Terraformed Mars
Most likely, due to the drastic difference in elevation between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, a massive ocean to the North, and progressively more desert landscapes toward the South Pole.
Source: Vice
An unfortunate consequence of full terraformation would likely be the flooding of Valles Marineris, the largest canyon in the solar system, almost as long as the entire length of the USA.
Source: Wikipedia
In the same way, large and small craters would turn into as many lakes, ponds, and swamps.
Even with massive improvements to the planet’s atmospheric density, its highest mountain peaks will still stay mostly airless, notably Olympus Mount, a 21.9 km (13.6 mi or 72,000 ft) volcano.
This would make Mars’ largest volcanoes “natural reserves” of the original Mars, still untouched when the whole planet is now green, and keep them as the prime tourist attractions they would have been since the early days of colonization.
Source: Wikipedia
Building a Biosphere: Mars’ New Ecosystem
If the temperatures rise, the atmosphere becomes thick enough, and water is flowing freely and in enough abundance, this would still leave the planet sterile.
The first step will be a water-based ecosystem, with the ocean mostly made of freshwater at first. This will mimic arctic ecosystems, where most of the energy production and food sources come from microalgae growing in the sea.
However, we are now starting to realize that some ultra-resistant moss found today on Earth could almost live on Mars as it is today.
So it is likely that a tundra-like ecosystem of lichen, moss, grass, maybe shrubs, and invertebrate animals could thrive first, much before the planet is fully terraformed. This would be especially true around the Equatorial regions, which will be warmer and have lower altitudes.
Perchlorate could also prove to be a blessing in disguise. Many Earth bacteria can consume it and turn it into oxygen. This could create both a minimal biomass to enrich soils in organic matter and create enough oxygen to enrich the atmosphere closer to breathable levels.
Meanwhile, low gravity could make Mars a paradise for birds and all flying animals.
In any case, as Mars receives just one-third of Earth’s solar radiation, it will likely see most of its plant life adopt deeper green or even dark leaf tones to capture more sunlight.
Still, it will likely take many decades or centuries for a fully stable and flourishing ecosystem to be established on Mars, as it takes that long for soil to build and life to adapt, even with the likely help of genetic engineering.
Living on a Terraformed Mars: What to Expect
Early Challenges of Living on Mars
No matter what, it is likely the first generations of Martian colonists will need to live a rather harsh life.
Most cities will be subterranean to escape the deadly radiations, and micrometeorites, and retain heat. It is for that matter likely why Elon Musk is so enthusiastic about developing better and electric-powered drill machines that can be running without initial setup.
At this stage, all work done daily will be either to pay for necessities and survival, or for initial terraformation, which will make living on Mars less expensive and easier.
Could Terraforming Mars Create a Utopia?
Terraforming Mars is by far the most ambitious project ever considered by mankind. So it is maybe not a surprise it invokes a lot of ideas of potential utopian or dystopian results.
Most likely, Mars will never be as friendly to human life as Earth. For example, it might forever be too poor in nitrogen for a perfect balance of its atmosphere. And being much further from the Sun, it might be overall less productive agriculturally and struggle to use solar power as efficiently.
Whether we can substitute or not with technology, the absence of a magnetic field on the planet is also an open question.
However, the possibility of creating a biosphere from scratch raises interesting questions. If cautiously done, with strict quarantine procedures, it could mean that a lot of diseases, pests and venomous animals dangerous on Earth could be inexistent on Mars, similarly to how many islands are also empty of such problems.
Lastly, the Martian population itself might be altered to adapt to its new planet, with genetic engineering on humans to tolerate the lower gravity, different atmosphere, and higher radiation likely to be more accepted there than on Earth.
What the Economy of Mars Could Look Like
While initially tied to Earth’s economy, Mars will progressively develop its own economic focus.
Initially built from the sky, it is likely that the Martian economy will stay focused on space development. This is due to the conjunction of a few factors:
- It is the largest planet on the way out of the solar system, before the much smaller and even more hostile satellites of large gaseous planets.
- It is the closest planet to the asteroid belt, which is rich in metal and other precious resources.
- Its 1/3rdgravity means that reaching the orbit will always be easier from Mars than Earth, making it a natural harbor for interplanetary ships looking for refueling, restocking, or repair.
The low gravity also means advanced space infrastructures like a space elevator are a lot easier to build on Mars.
Other likely fields of Martian excellence will be artificial habitats, bioengineering, and mining, due to the long history of the local population in using this technology to ensure their survival.
Conclusion
Most of the criticism of plans for Martian colonization focuses on the immediate dangers and wants to either slow down or wait a few decades or a century before even trying.
This may be a reasonable approach, but not the one mankind is expected to take, judging from history’s track record.
A small portion of the “crazy” first wave of pioneers will happily volunteer for the high death rate, low comfort, and maybe a one-way ticket to a life on Mars promises.
We can also expect great power competition, corporate interests, and scientific curiosity to be major drivers in taking such risks, as have previous waves of exploration and colonization in history.
Once there, the first inhabitants will most certainly look to turn their new home from a hostile desert into a paradise garden.
This will be an almost impossible task.
It will also be a major stimulus for innovation, and impressive engineering feats, and maybe form the template of even more daring expansion onto Venus, Mercury, Jupiter’s & Saturn’s moons.
How to Invest in the Future of Mars and Space Exploration
It is too early to invest in terraforming megaprojects or Martian real estate. But a handful of companies are working hard to build the stepping stones that will make it possible to land the first man on Mars and colonize the planet later.
A key part will be reusable rockets, dramatically reducing the cost of launching equipment into orbit and deep space. This effort is mostly currently led by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a private company, with other rocket companies catching up quickly.
Another factor will be to create a self-sustaining space-based economy and Martian economy, able to support terraforming efforts without depending on Earthlings’ willingness to finance it “for free” (follow the links for more details on how it would work).
You can invest in aerospace companies through many brokers, and you can find here, on securities.io, our recommendations for the best brokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as many other countries.
If you are not interested in picking specific aerospace companies, you can also look into ETFs like ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), or SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF, which will provide a more diversified exposure to capitalize on the aerospace industry.
Or you can read our article about the “Top 10 Aerospace and Defense Stocks”.
Investing In the Aerospace Sector
Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB +4.61%)
Rocket Lab is one of the most serious contenders in the reusable rocket market. The company has initially focused on small rockets, with the Electron launch system (320 kg of payload), which is progressively being turned into a partially reusable rocket. So far, Electron has deployed 177 satellites in 44 launches.
Later on, Rocket Lab is looking at creating a medium-size reusable rocket, the Neutron, comparable to Falcon 9 (8,000 kg to LEO in fully reusable mode, 1,500 kg to Mars or Venus). The Neutron will be powered by a methane-burning rocket engine (like Starship), which seems to become the trend for the next generation of rockets.
Source: Rocket Lab
The company is remarkable for its fully vertically integrated satellite manufacturing process, allowing it to optimize costs and design speed.
This resulted in multiple contracts with NASA & the US government, including a $515M military satellite contract. And a civilian $143m contract for Globalstar.
Rocket Lab is also a major manufacturer of solar panels for satellites after its 2022 acquisitions of SolAero Technologies, with 1000+ satellites powered by these panels, and 4MW solar cells manufactured in total.
Source: Rocket Lab
For now, its launch system is reliant on outside suppliers, but a series of strategic acquisitions should change that, replicating in the launch system the vertical integration already achieved in satellite design and manufacturing.
The company is also looking at the possibility of a telecom LEO constellation to generate recurring revenues. It is also contributing to research for in-space manufacturing with Varda Space Industries and orbital debris inspection.
While SpaceX had Elon Musk’s business talent to develop its technology from scratch, Rocket Lab used a mix of R&D and acquisitions to vertically integrate the technology required. This has proven very successful in satellite manufacturing, and they are now looking to replicate this strategy for reusable rockets.
Considering the existing cash flow from satellite production & the Electron successes, Rocket Lab is a good candidate to catch up with SpaceX’s head start.
For those interested in investing in this company, make sure to take a look at the top stock brokers in your region (e.g. for USA, UK, Canada, and Australia) or our article on the 10 Best Investing Apps, as well as our full report on Rocket Lab.
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