IDC has revised its global smartphone shipments forecast 2024, projecting a 5.8% year-on-year (YoY) growth to 1.23 billion units. The market intelligence firm’s optimistic outlook is driven by strong growth in affordable Android devices across emerging markets and substantial interest in generative AI-capable smartphones in premium segments.
IDC’s senior research director, Nabila Popal, noted that Android devices are expected to see growth rates nine times faster than iOS at 7.1% compared to 0.8%. This disparity is attributed to increasing competition for Apple in China and a higher comparison base year for the iPhone maker.
However, the forecast suggests potential upside for iOS, depending on the reception of GenAI features in the upcoming iPhone 16 and Apple’s ability to establish local AI partnerships in China. IDC anticipates an improved trajectory for iOS in 2025, with 4% YoY growth expected due to the anticipated momentum of Apple Intelligence.
The report highlights the rapid adoption of GenAI smartphones, forecasting a 344% growth in this segment to capture 18% of the total market by the end of 2024. IDC research director Anthony Scarsella pointed out that most flagship models will likely incorporate some on-device GenAI features.
“Although GenAI smartphones are relatively new in the market, premium flagships will continue to adopt GenAI features to help separate them from the pack,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director for IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. Notably, the average selling price for GenAI-capable smartphones is expected to be more than double that of non-GenAI devices, further driving the premiumisation trend in the industry.
The smartphone market’s recovery comes after a challenging period. IDC’s data shows 12% growth in the first quarter of 2024, followed by 9% growth in the second quarter. This positive trend has bolstered confidence in the industry’s performance for the latter half of the year.
Even the latest Canalys research revealed that the worldwide smartphone market grew strongly in the second quarter of 2024, with shipments reaching 288.9 million units. “The market has grown for three consecutive quarters, driven by product innovation initiatives and improvements in business conditions,” Canalys stated.
Mirroring IDC’s data, Canalys noted that despite a modest 1% shipment increase, Samsung held onto pole position with 53.5 million units shipped. Meanwhile, Apple held second place with 45.6 million units, bolstered by solid momentum in North America and APAC’s emerging markets.
China’s Xiaomi, with its competitive product offerings, followed closely with shipments of 42.3 million units to achieve a market share of 15%. “Greater China’s growth trajectory now mirrors global markets, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions and renewed business confidence among channel and smartphone brands,” the report stated.
Like elsewhere, the Chinese domestic market will see local Chinese brands use GenAI features to stand out in the premium segment, aiming to capture rising high-end spending and apply successful strategies worldwide.
“Samsung will inevitably focus on integrating its Galaxy ecosystem to create strong value propositions for consumers via its flagship offerings with exclusive GenAI features,” Canalys Senior Analyst Sanyam Chaurasia said. Apple will look to accelerate replacement demand in these markets via its AI strategy, with hybrid models, enhanced privacy and personalised Siri features.”
Even Canalys doesn’t foresee the smartphone market seeing double-digit growth in 2024 despite the seasonal demand in the year’s second half. Overall, the global technology market analyst firm anticipates the smartphone market to grow in the mid-single digits in 2024, driven by recovering inventory levels, eased import restrictions, and a better economic climate.
(Photo by Samuel Angor)
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