“Sell in May, go away” didn’t work out for crypto this time. The saying, borrowed from traditional finance (TradFi) where stocks often underperform between May and October, has found its way into crypto too, but it’s hit or miss in both worlds. Summer markets can go either way.
The crypto market can experience deep drawdowns, as it did in 2022, 2021, and 2018, or it can begin its multi-month rally, as it did in 2017. May is green this time around.
So far, Bitcoin (BTC -2.92%) has rallied 17.4% this month, following 14.08% gains in April. More importantly, it has hit a new all-time high (ATH) at $111,814.
Having broken its January ATH of $109K on Thursday, the $2.2 trillion market cap cryptocurrency is now slowly hitting new numbers with clear skies above for the price to rally to. As of writing, BTC/USD is trading around $109,000, down 2.3% from the ATH hit on May 22.
“A sustained break above $110,000 is needed to trigger the next leg higher towards $125,000,“ said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, in a note, who also noted that new ATH shows that Bitcoin’s 31% decline from the January high to April low, was “a correction within a bull market.”
Bitcoin’s slower-than-usual but the sure grind to the top is now starting to attract leverage traders as well with open interest (OI), number of outstanding contracts, surging to surpass $78 billion, up from $69.5 billion on Jan. 22, according to CoinGlass.
Leading this OI is CME at 18.2 bln, which is followed by Binance at $13 billion. At 3rd place is Bybit with $7.85 bln in OI.
In the options market, meanwhile, traders are building dramatic Bitcoin positions. Calls of $110,000, $120,000, and $300,000, expiring late in June, have recorded the most OI on the derivatives exchange Deribit.
Bitcoin’s rally actually had broad participation, with $13.86 billion in notional open interest outstanding for BlackRock’s spot in the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). The options market, on top of IBIT, debuted late last year and is one of the most actively traded ones, showing strong enthusiasm for BTC.
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A Wave of Positive News Powers Bitcoin Moves
Just last month, Bitcoin had taken a dip below $75,000 and has since seen over a 48% increase in its value. The crypto king is also up about 595% from the 2022 bear market low of around $15,850 and 61% above the 2021 bull market peak.
With this latest recovery and fresh ATHs, Bitcoin’s Q2 market performance is now 33.9% green, up from the 11.82% drawdown in Q1 of 2025.
This ongoing solid market momentum has traders and investors increasingly bullish on Bitcoin’s performance in the coming weeks and months, amidst the regulatory clarity and support from Donald Trump’s administration.
“The U.S.A. is DOMINATING in Crypto, Bitcoin, etc., and we are going to keep it that way!“ wrote President Trump on Truth Social on Thursday as the largest cryptocurrency’s value surged to fresh highs.
From the regulatory point of view, this week, a key stablecoin bill advanced to the next stage, having cleared a key procedural vote in the Senate. According to co-sponsor Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, the bill “will provide regulatory clarity to this important industry, keep innovation on shore, add robust consumer protection, and reaffirm the dominance of the U.S. dollar.“
In other big news, the House of Representatives in Texas passed a bill (SB 21) that would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the state, similar to the one created by President Trump’s executive order.
“Already the home of crypto mining, this legislative session, Texas should become the crypto capital. Governor Abbott looks forward to reviewing this proposal.“
– Andrew Mahaleris, the governor’s press secretary, said in a statement
However, before the bill can pass, it has to go to a conference first. According to Lee Bratcher of the Texas Blockchain Council, the bill is expected to move through the conference easily.
Amidst this, outgoing CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger also shared the potential for crypto perpetual futures products to be approved in the US soon.
“I think those can come to market now, and we’re seeing some applications, and I believe we’ll have some of those products trading live very soon,“ She said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. She added that these products “will be really beneficial to the [crypto] industry broadly and to our economy here in the United States.“
Besides crypto-friendly regulations lifting the Bitcoin market, macro conditions are also believed to have played a role in all this. This includes growing liquidity, renewed geopolitical uncertainty, Moody’s downgrading the US sovereign debt, Trump ratcheting back his global trade war, especially easing trade tensions between the US and China, and the weakening US dollar.
These macro factors helped make Bitcoin attractive, highlighting its store of value proposition. This could be seen in Bitcoin’s divergence from stocks, which typically correlate with equity markets.
In addition to all these developments, there is a major reason for Bitcoin’s price to enjoy such strong momentum, and that’s a lot of buyers. These buyers aren’t retail either, but institutions.
As James Butterfill, head of research for crypto-focused asset manager CoinShares, noted, Bitcoin’s move has been “driven by a mix of positive momentum, growing optimism around U.S. crypto regulation, and continued interest from institutional buyers.”
Institutional Hunger Meets Bitcoin Scarcity to Fuel Price Gains
In May, the 12 US Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted continuous and strong inflows, with investors pouring in a total of $5.3 billion so far this month. There have only been two outflows so far, totaling just $142 million.
These inflows come after a rough April, whose first half was dominated by outflows. The last seven days of April, however, recorded significant inflows. This dip-buying continued into May, which has now led us to new highs in Bitcoin price.
Among ETF issuers, BlackRock (BLK -0.69%)(IBIT) continues to lead, with Fidelity (FBTC) coming in second. These two actually see most, if not all, of the inflows.
With a cumulative net inflow of $47.55 billion, IBIT ranks first, with $72.69 billion in net assets. Then comes Fidelity, with $11.88 88 billion in net inflows and $22.38 billion in net assets.
While Ark (ARKB) and Bitwise (BITB) have managed to register some inflows, the other issuers rarely do, if ever. This can be seen with their AUM, with the bottom-five issuers; BRRR, BTCO, EZBC, BTCW, and DeFi, far from breaking the billion-dollar mark.
In total, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have seen a cumulative total net inflow of $44.31 billion since they first started trading in early January 2024. Their total assets under management meanwhile has reached $134.30 billion, according to SoSo Value.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs are not the only ones gobbling up BTC. There is one company, or one man, who is far more aggressive with his Bitcoin accumulation ambition: Michael Saylor.
There is a continuous demand from Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR -7.5%), though just how good it is for Bitcoin in the long-term, can’t be said, as it has already stockpiled 576,230 BTC, worth over $62 billion. And with that, Strategy now owns 2.75% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
The thing is Saylor isn’t done accumulating Bitcoin even now. The company has announced its new plans to raise as much $2.1 billion through the sale of 10% perpetual strife preferred stock. And these funds will be used for further Bitcoin acquisitions.
STRF was unveiled just a few months ago as a product exclusively available for institutional investors. It offers a 10% annual cash dividend. Interestingly, it has an escalation mechanism, which allows payouts to increase if payments are missed.
Saylor has described STRF as “the crown jewel of our preferred strategy,“ allowing the company to be “choosy“ about how much STRF it issues. The product, according to him, unlocks a new class of investors who may not be comfortable with buying highly volatile Bitcoin or convertible debt. He said:
“As the market becomes more comfortable with Bitcoin and more comfortable with our preferred strategy, they’ll start to see just how good these instruments are.“
Overall, since the beginning of the year, the number of BTC held by public companies has grown by about 31% to about $349 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries.
This rising demand in a competitive Bitcoin corporate treasury environment actually comes while supply experienced a crunch with the halving in April 2024, and analysts believe this makes the case for a wild ride ahead.
According to Alexander S. Blume, founder and CEO of SEC-registered investment advisor Two Prime, corporate treasuries have been buying Bitcoin on the OTC market “en masse,“ and sovereign demand for the cryptocurrency is also picking up.
All this massive demand from institutions has experts predicting bold targets for Bitcoin prices.
For instance, Standard Chartered’s bullish bet on Bitcoin has the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, forecasting $200,000 per BTC by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2029. What would drive this uptrend is the demand for a non-sovereign asset.
“We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets to trigger the next sharp upswing in Bitcoin in the coming months.“
– Kendrick said in April
Investment firm Bernstein is of the same view as Standard Chartered, expecting BTC to end this year at $200K, driven by institutional capital inflow. Even BlockRock’s Larry Fink, who’s finally interested in Bitcoin having launched the popular iShares Bitcoin Trust, sees Bitcoin hitting $700,000 eventually.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase CEO sees Bitcoin valued at “multiple millions“ at some point in the future. This week, the largest crypto exchange in the US joined the S&P 500, a move seen as a turning point for the crypto industry.
Altcoins Wait in the Wings, Will Capital Rotate or Concentrate?
So, there’s clearly immense demand for the trillion-dollar cryptocurrency and this has Bitcoin outperforming smaller cryptocurrencies. This gap is actually widening. So, is this bull market only about Bitcoin? Will altcoins pump?
Well, crypto market participants are divided on that. Some believe we may not see an industry-wide uptrend, as is the norm in bull markets.
One reason is that there are simply too many coins today, which is true. By allowing tokens to be created in a matter of minutes for absolutely free, the Solana-based Pump.fun led to an explosion of tokens. For instance, more than 10.4 million tokens have been launched on Pump.fun since its launch in Jan. 2024.
The other reason is that Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutions this time, who are not interested in our meme coins or AI tokens, except for maybe a handful. This suggests that profits from Bitcoin won’t rotate into the altcoins, which means that only a limited number of tokens will rally, and that too with a limited upside.
Others believe this time is not different, and altcoins will catch up once Bitcoin rests around the ATH. Currently, the largest cryptocurrency is in price discovery, which means it has seized both capital and attention. So, with Bitcoin not yet done topping, altcoins haven’t yet experienced the face-melting rally they are known for.
Well, it’s to be seen if altcoins will enjoy a massive uptrend. For now though, they are seeing some action. And this has helped the total crypto market capitalization rise to $3.6 trillion, inching closer to the $3.9 trillion high hit in mid-December.
Now, if we look at those closest to their ATH, among the top 100 crypto assets, the HYPE has hit a fresh high at $37.24 just today, a big jump from the $10 low it put in April. These new highs came for the native token of perpetual DEX Hyperliquid as it witnessed a surge in OI, surpassing $9 billion.
On May 23, Hyperliquid Labs also shared that it has submitted formal comments on 24/7 derivatives trading to the CFTC. The team behind the DEX said:
“We commend the CFTC for its proactive engagement on these topics, understanding of which is fundamental to the evolution of global markets.“
Hyperliquid further stated that it is committed to the advancement of the DeFi space and that its implementation “exemplifies how core DeFi principles can be put into practice to enhance market efficiency, market integrity, and user protection.“
Yet another exchange token, BNB (BNB -3.41%), is a mere 15.2% away from its $788.84 ATH from Dec. 2024. Trading at $669, the token’s price has increased 28% from April lows.
XRP (XRP -4.11%), too, has been holding nicely these past six months, trading at $2.36, just 30.6% off of its $3.40 peak that came over 7 years ago in 2018.
SUI (SUI -5.42%), on the other hand, has been gaining traction since its ecosystem was hit by an exploit. On Thursday, Cetus, the largest DEX on its network, was hacked, with $200 million worth of tokens drained from liquidity pools. In response, the Cetus team paused the smart contracts and is actively investigating the incident.
As a result, some meme coins crashed more than 90% within the hour, while several other ecosystem tokens registered double-digit losses.
In a surprising move, SUI itself wasn’t too much affected by the news. The 13th largest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of $12.2 billion, was trading above $4, not far from its $5.35 peak hit in Jan. this year, before its price declined to $3.60.
ETH Lags, Institutions Uninterested, Can Pectra Turn the Tide?
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH -4.56%), has also started to see some green, up 75% since its April lows.
While Ethereum has finally recorded some gains, these have come after a drawdown, which means its price is still stuck at around $2,500. This is despite the ETH supply on exchanges hitting its lowest level in history.
ETHBTC, meanwhile, is at 0.02356, representing only a small recovery from the multi-year low of 0.01777, last seen in January 2020.
Ethereum USD (ETH -4.56%)
More importantly, Ethereum has yet to hit a new ATH and is currently down 47.4% from the $4,878.26 high that was hit more than three years ago in Nov. 2021. And even though SOL (SOL -1.12%) price seems to be lagging for now, up only 72% from the April low as it currently trades at $181, the ETH competitor is still just 38.3% away from its $293 ATH that was hit on Jan. 19, 2025.
The quarterly performance of Ether shows that its positive performance in Q2 was only 47%, which followed a 45.4% sell-off in Q1. Amidst this lackluster performance, Ethereum OI surged to $33.78 bln, almost doubling in a month.
But what about Ether’s institutional flow? Well, it has been just as dull. Ethereum Spot ETFs have only managed to capture $2.70 billion in cumulative total net inflows over all this time, with total net assets coming in at $9.33 bln.
As for May flows, institutions invested only $333 million in this month while outflows have been $113.2 million, according to Farside.
Staking can potentially change this trend but for now, the SEC continues to delay the decision on it. Most recently, it postponed the decision on Bitwise’s application to integrate staking into its Ethereum ETF until July 6, 2025.
In the technical realm, Ethereum had the Pectra upgrade, which went live on May 7, with an aim to enhance validator flexibility and streamline staking operations. It also brings a new level of functionality to Externally Owned Accounts (EOAs) to allow for transaction batching and delegation to alternative key schemes. Through extended blob capabilities, developers now have new pathways to build cost-effective dApps.
As crypto data provider Glassnode noted, the Pectra upgrade hasn’t yet translated into a spike in network engagement. In fact, the average new and resurrected addresses since the upgrade are down 1.8% and 8.4% respectively in comparison to year-to-date values, but at the same time, churn is lower too. Glassnode stated:
“Pectra hasn’t brought in new or returning users so far – but user churn has dropped. Whether this reflects network upgrades or broader cycle trends remains to be seen.“
Final Thoughts
Overall, Bitcoin’s record-breaking run above $111,000 marks a major turning point in the financial landscape. With institutions piling in, regulatory support gaining momentum, and macro uncertainty boosting the cryptocurrency’s appeal as a non-sovereign store of value, the stage is set for continued upside.
However, whether this rally spills over into altcoins or stays concentrated in Bitcoin remains to be seen. For now, Bitcoin is leading the charge, and the entire world is watching it skyrocket!
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