Space exploration is a trillion-dollar opportunity. According to McKinsey estimates, the global space economy will be $1.8 trillion by 2035 (accounting for inflation), up from $630 billion in 2023.
One of the highlights that drives investors to hop on the space exploration bandwagon is the colonization of Mars. The increase in scientific knowledge and data about Mars and its behavior has led to more studies focused on potential construction on Mars. But before delving deeper into the latest research on understanding Mars, let us have a brief overview of how the Mars mission progressed over time.
A Brief History of Important Missions to Mars
More than five decades ago, in 1965, NASA’s Mariner 4 arrived on Mars and sent 21 photos of the planet back to Earth.Six years later, in 1971, the USSR’s Mars 3 lander completed a soft landing on Mars. In the same year, NASA’s Mariner 9 discovered volcanoes and Valles Marineris, and while capturing thousands of photos, it eventually sent them back from Mars’ orbit.
Source: NASA
In 1976 Viking 1 and Viking 2 arrived on Mars and sent their landers to the surface. While each spacecraft could safely return years of data, they could not prove the existence of microorganisms on Mars.
After 1976, it took over two decades to achieve a significant breakthrough in Mission Mars. It was in 1997 that NASA’s Pathfinder lander and Sojourner rover arrived on the surface of Mars.
Source: Research Gate
In 2001 NASA’s Mars Odyssey commenced. So far, it has been one of the most significant endeavors focused on Mars with more than two decades of relaying data from the red planet to Earth.
Journeys to Mars have not remained limited to the efforts of the United States. Many other countries have joined the trail in the subsequent years. For instance, in 2014, India’s Orbiter mission arrived on Mars. In 2021, the UAE’s first interplanetary mission, the Hope Orbiter, arrived at Mars. In 2021, China’s Tianwen-1 mission arrived in orbit. Three months later, China was successful in its deployment of the lander and rover.
As it stands now, a host of countries and companies are heavily engaged in their respective missions to know Mars better. Reputed research organizations are doing their best as well. One such is the mission undertaken by MIT, whose latest study shows that Mars’ missing atmosphere might not be ‘missing.’ It could be hiding in plain sight.
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The Mystery Behind the ‘Missing Atmosphere’ of Mars
To speak in strictly scientific terms, the study, published by Joshua Murray and Oliver Jagoutz, quantified the effects of ultramafic alteration on the carbon cycle of early Mars.
They calculated the capacity of Noachian-age clays to store organic carbon. Their calculations, the numerical part of which we will see later, could help calculate the volume of the reservoir that would be used as an energy source for long-term missions. The results of the study also illustrated the control of water-rock reactions on the atmospheric evolution of planets.
While all these might sound too scientific for the common man to understand and comprehend, what the scientists proposed through their study was that much of Mars’ missing atmosphere could be locked up in the planet’s clay-covered crust. Further elaborating on the origin of the phenomenon, the scientists highlighted the possibility of water, while it was still present on the planet, trickling through certain rock types and setting off a slow chain of reactions that progressively drew carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and converted it into methane.
Methane was the form of carbon that could stay stored for eons on the planet’s clay surface. What was the most useful outcome of this research for the scientific community interested in Mars was the possibility of this sequestered Martian carbon being recovered and converted into propellant to fuel future missions between Mars and Earth.
According to study author Oliver Jagoutz, professor of geology at MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS):
“This methane could still be present and maybe even used as an energy source on Mars in the future.”
The Importance of Knowing the Planet’s History
While the research and its findings hold great potential for our future, the breakthrough could not have been reached by the scientists had they not studied the planet’s history and composition.
Efforts to uncover this history led to several crucial insights. For instance, some remote measurements of Mars’s surface suggested that at least part of the planet’s crust contained ultramafic igneous rocks. The process of forming these rocks was similar to what led to the production of smectites on Earth.
Smectite – a type of surface clay mineral – is known to be a highly effective trap for carbon. A single grain of smectite comes with a multitude of folds for carbon to sit undisturbed for billions of years.
The effects of ultramafic alteration on Mars were similar. The Noachian-age clays formed due to this alteration could store organic carbon. Up to 1.7 bar of CO2 could plausibly be absorbed on clay surfaces. Coupling abiotic methanogenesis with the best estimates of Mars’ δ13C history led to the scientists predicting a reservoir of 0.6 to 1.3 bar of CO2 equivalent.
The scientists dug deeper into this phenomenon of ultramafic rocks. They explored the possibility of water reacting with Mars’ deep ultramafic rocks in a way that would produce clays that cover the surface today. Their research led them to believe that the rock was rich in mineral olivine.
They further looked into the prospects and potential of these olivine-rich rocks in storing carbon, which led them to claim the possibility of Olivine reacting with water trickling through the crust. Olivine – being a mineral that is rich in a reduced form of iron – could have bound to the Oxygen present in water, releasing hydrogen as a result and forming the red oxidized iron, which gives the planet its color.
Lastly, the free hydrogen of the water would have combined with carbon dioxide in the water to form methane.
The work, supported in part by the National Science Foundation, could be a game changer as the scientists involved made multiple significant claims.
“At this time in Mars’ history, we think CO2 is everywhere, in every nook and cranny, and water percolating through the rocks is full of CO2 too.”
– Joshua Murray
Elaborating the importance of the research, Bruce Jakosky, professor emeritus of geology at the University of Colorado and principal investigator on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission, which has been orbiting and studying Mars’ upper atmosphere since 2014, had the following to say:
“Murray and Jagoutz examine the chemical interaction of rocks with the atmosphere as a means of removing CO2. At the high end of our estimates of how much weathering has occurred, this could be a major process in removing CO2 from Mars’ early atmosphere.”
To summarize, the research excavated the history of the red planet to understand where the CO2 went from an early, thicker atmosphere. The question is undoubtedly fundamental to understanding Mars’s atmosphere, its climate, and the habitability of microbes.
Apart from the research institutions, there are companies interested in exploring Mars. One such company is SpaceX.
#1. SpaceX
Mission Mars of SpaceX works with the vision of paving the road to making humanity multi-planetary. Elon Musk, the well-known founder of SpaceX, a globally discussed figure in the field of space exploration and beyond, is immensely ambitious with his company’s Mars mission.
“You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great – and that’s what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It’s about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can’t think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.”
– Musk, while outlining his vision
SpaceX Mars Solution: Starship
Starship is SpaceX’s spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket combined. The combo stands as a fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond. It has earned the reputation of being the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.
The SpaceX official claims that it has six months to get to Mars and will enter Mars’ atmosphere at 7.5 kilometers per second. It will decelerate aerodynamically. It is capable of on-orbit refilling, enabling it to transport up to 100 tons to Mars.
With high reusing capability built into it, the tanker ship has the potential to bring down the cost of the mission as the primary cost would just be that of the Oxygen and Methane, a low-cost affair altogether.
The reason why SpaceX is interested in Mars is multi-dimensional. The company sees Mars as one of Earth’s closest habitable neighbors with decent sunlight. While it acknowledges the coldness of the planet, it is confident of warming it up.
However, according to Musk’s admission, the mission to Mars remains a costly affair. According to his own X post from the early half of this month:
“It currently costs about a billion dollars per ton of useful payload to the surface of Mars. That needs to be improved to $100k/ton to build a self-sustaining city there, so the technology needs to be 10,000 times better. Extremely difficult, but not impossible.”
SpaceX works in collaboration with NASA. On Sept. 26, 2024, NASA invited the public to participate as virtual guests in the launch of the agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission as NASA astronaut Nick Hague, commander, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov, mission specialist, was to embark on a flight aboard a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, launching no earlier than 1:17 p.m. EDT on Saturday, Sept. 28, from Space Launch Complex-40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.
SpaceX is seen as one of the most crucial and secretive private companies out there that grew itself from an unprofitable $2 billion in revenue to, reportedly, $9 billion for 2023 with a projected $15 billion in 2024 and $3 billion in earnings.
#2. Blue Origin
Another company that is famously operating in the same market space as Space X is Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin. It works with the mission of ‘building a road to space so our children can build the future.’
Founded with a vision of enabling millions of people to live and work in space for the benefit of Earth, Blue Origin envisions a future where humanity can tap into the limitless resources of space and relocate the harmful industries beyond our planet to preserve Earth—our blue origin.
The company has its vision broken up into achievable mission components which include increasing access to space through reusable rockets, It wants to develop space vehicles of the future which will be nothing but reusable launch vehicles and in-space systems that are safe, low cost, and serve the needs of all civil, commercial, and defense customers.
The company has been flight testing its New Shepard rocket and its redundant safety systems since 2012. It has carried out 22 successful consecutive missions so far, including three successful escape tests. The company believes that operational reusability is the only way to lower the cost of access to space, and both its solutions – New Shepard and New Glenn – have been designed with reusability in mind from the beginning.
It would be pertinent to mention here that NASA’s Launch Services Program (LSP) awarded New Glenn the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) contract, a part of the NASA Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx) program, a dual spacecraft mission to study Mars’ magnetosphere.
According to the latest available reports, Blue Origin has raised $596.4M over 8 rounds so far with the latest funding round being a Grant – VII for $34.7M on Jul. 25, 2023.
Concluding Thoughts
It is beyond doubt that the world’s most visionary business leaders are exploring Mars. At the same time, the best research institutions and space agencies from many countries are also in it. The goal is to establish a safe, cost-effective route to Mars.
However, each of the stakeholders is well aware that success depends on an effective understanding of past events that have happened to the planet. According to NASA’s official admission, the agency, over the years, ‘has engaged in a systematic effort to determine the early history of Mars and how it can help us understand the formation and evolution of habitable worlds, including Earth.’
However, such efforts would require more resources, both financial and intellectual resources. For instance, the Sample Return Programme launched by NASA, seeking innovative designs to return valuable samples from Mars to Earth, will be one of the most complex missions NASA has ever undertaken. It has a budget of US$11 billion.
According to NASA Administrator Bill Nelson:
“Safely landing and collecting the samples, launching a rocket with the samples of another planet – which has never been done before – and safely transporting the samples more than 33 million miles back to Earth is no small task. We need to look outside the box to find a way ahead that is both affordable and returns samples in a reasonable timeframe.”
With all these gigantic missions underway, one must also remember that fund allocation for tentative space programs could also mean a resource crunch in the efforts to make our planet Earth sustainable. A balance has to be struck where space missions would mean benefits for the Earth and its inhabitants, the human civilization, the animal kingdom, and the abundant nature we live amidst.
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