Can Mars Be Tamed?
Recent scientific news reveals that Mars might not have to stay a permanently hostile place to life and human settlement.
While the idea of colonizing Mars has stoked the imagination of science-fiction writers and space enthusiasts for more than a century, doing it for real will face a few massive issues:
- Very thin and cold atmosphere
- Lack of water
- Terrible windstorms
- Strong radiation at the surface
For a long time, the only options discussed to solve these problems were either megaprojects way behind our current abilities or rather poor long-term solutions like staying permanently underground.
Luckily, recent news illustrates that Mars could be made less hostile with less effort.
Warming The Air
No Realistic Solution Until Now
A major problem with Mars is its average temperature of -65C/-85F. Not only is it cold, but it can often get a lot colder than even Antarctica’s worst. And there is not really a long line of volunteers to colonize Antarctica.
Several solutions have been considered, but all have limitations on available resources or the viability of the technology.
For example, covering Mars’ surface (or maybe just its poles) with 2-3 cm of silica aerogel might, in theory, work, but that is a hell of a lot of aerogel to produce.
Another idea is to create a massive greenhouse effect by releasing tremendous amounts of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. But here too, the quantity required to produce a sufficient effect is staggering, or the resources are just not available.
Source: University Of Berkeley
Metal Nanorods
It is becoming clear that we need something much more potent than greenhouse gases to warm Mars, so the scale of the required production is not so daunting.
Scientists from Northwestern University, the University of Chicago, and the University of Central Florida might have published a solution in Science Advances.
They propose to mass manufacture conductive 9-micrometer nanorods, the size of commercial glitter, made from aluminum or iron. When released into the atmosphere, these nanorods would be 5,000x more efficient than previously proposed methods to warm the atmosphere by absorbing the Sun’s infrared light. These nanorods would stay in the atmosphere 10x longer than normal dust.
The idea would be that by warming the atmosphere, the nanorods will warm the air enough to make frozen CO2 evaporate, and then melt surface water so that runaway warming could be triggered and make the surface able to sustain liquid water.
Source: Science Advances
The quantity of nanorods to produce would be significant but no longer unmanageable. Especially as Mars’ crust is notoriously rich in iron, hence its overall red color.
The researchers estimate it would require 700,000 cubic meters of metal per year, likely mined from 70 million cubic meters of surface material. This is no doubt very large but represents only 0.2% of the metals mined on Earth every year, so it can also be achievable.
You can read more details about this plan in our dedicated article, “Terraforming Mars Just Became More Realistic With This Approach.”
Modeling Mars Atmosphere
Mars atmosphere has been studied for decades, but the data have mostly been limited to either analyses from orbit, or local measurements on rovers. If we are serious about colonizing the red planet, we will need a deeper understanding, especially of the Martian winds.
This is especially important as the planet is known to be subjected to massive dust storms, including occasional planet-wide dust storms that can last weeks.
Source: NASA
Properly modeling winds and the atmosphere will also be crucial for any terraforming effort focused on increased temperature, especially the previously discussed metallic nanorods.
To start more relevant studies, scientists at Tufts University (Massachusetts), NASA Ames Research Center, and Vandervalk Neeson Instruments have developed a sonic anemometer that could work in Martian conditions.
This required a specific effort, as the Martian air offers very different conditions than Earth:
- Temperatures ranging from –130 °C to 20 °C (-200F to 68F).
- Very thin air density, with only 4–10 mbar of almost pure CO2.
Through custom design and repeated testing, the researchers managed to create several anemometers that had only a very small measurement error in Martian conditions.
The worst performance was 1-2% in error measurement, and the best was a 0.07-0.14% error.
In addition, they also tested their equipment in conditions similar to the Martian atmosphere at 30-42km altitude, opening the way for measurement by high-altitude balloon, a key tool in studying winds on Earth.
Giant Martian Oceans
Unexpected Discovery
As mentioned, Mars has been studied a lot from orbit, but its interior composition is still mostly a mystery, with most landers and rovers having studied only the surface. This has suddenly changed with NASA’s InSight lander (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport).
The InSight mission launched in 2018, but scientists are still studying its data today. And on August 12th, 2024, a groundbreaking revelation was made.
The study of seismic activity revealed a large underground reservoir of liquid water — enough to fill oceans on the planet’s surface.
This completely changes the perception of Mars as a dead, desert world. Until now, most scientists believed the bulk of its water had been blown away by solar winds. So any terraformation project would have required not only melting what water is left on the top layer of rock and in the poles but probably also importing large amounts of water by crashing comets on the planet.
It appears that, instead, much of the water did not escape into space but filtered down into the crust.
Can It Be Used?
The presence of liquid water on Mars is a good surprise. However, the depth of 11.5-20 km (7.1-12.4 miles) makes it not a resource that could be tapped out by early exploration and colonization efforts.
The water is also locked between fractured rock, so it is not like a giant underground ocean but more a several-kilometer-wide layer of wet rock. Digging that deep might be a serious challenge. It is also not impossible.
The deepest hole ever drilled on Earth was in the Kola Peninsula, in Russia, near Murmansk, referred to as the “Kola well.” It reached 7 km depth after 7 years of effort and would be finished at 12 km deep after 19 years of effort.
Source: The Sun
Obviously, digging that deep on Mars would require a lot of infrastructure. So most likely it could only be achieved with a large population already living on Mars, with a self-sustaining economy as we discussed in “The Future Martian Economy”.
Still, the main limitation to drilling deeper on Earth is temperature, as the bottom of the Kola well reached 190C (370F), melting the drilling equipment.
Mars is a planet which is a lot smaller and colder, with little geothermal activity, so a 10-15 km well would be a lot colder, even if some areas might have residual volcanic activity. The 1/3rd of Earth’s gravity would also help in moving heavy equipment and removing rock from such depth.
So, could these underground trapped oceans be tapped into like we do for oil deposits on Earth by future Martian colonists? Maybe. Only time will tell.
In any case, this potential supply of water could radically change the future of Mars colonization and give the red planet a self-sustaining ecosystem, which we explored in “Space Food – How Will We Feed Humanity’s Next Wave of Pioneers?”.
It is also almost certain that colonizing Mars will require other tools and megaprojects, some of which we discussed in “Space Infrastructure – Building Stairways To The Heavens”.
Chance Of Life?
Another exciting possibility is that these underground oceans could contain life.
We know that life can be sustained by energy from minerals and radioactive decay. When the atmosphere of Mars disappeared, and the oceans seeped into the ground, it is possible that life found refuge underground.
“Water is necessary for life as we know it. I don’t see why it is not a habitable environment. It’s certainly true on Earth — deep, deep mines host life, the bottom of the ocean hosts life.
We haven’t found any evidence for life on Mars, but at least we have identified a place that should, in principle, be able to sustain life.”
Michael Manga – UC Berkeley professor of earth and planetary science.
Here, too, only deep wells will tell us if this is a possibility.
Investing In Mars
We are too early in time to invest in terraforming megaprojects or Martian real estate. But a handful of companies are working hard in building the stepping blocks that will make it possible to land the first man on Mars, and later on colonize the planet.
A key part will be reusable rockets, dramatically reducing the cost of launching equipment into orbit and deep space. This effort is mostly currently led by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a private company, with other rocket companies catching up quickly.
You can invest in aerospace companies through many brokers, and you can find here, on securities.io, our recommendations for the best brokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as many other countries.
If you are not interested in picking specific aerospace companies, you can also look into ETFs like ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), or SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF, which will provide a more diversified exposure to capitalize on the aerospace industry.
Or you can read our article about the “Top 10 Aerospace and Defense Stocks”.
Investing In Space Companies
1. Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab is one of the most serious contenders in the reusable rocket market. The company has initially focused on small rockets, with the Electron launch system (320 kg of payload), which is progressively being turned into a partially reusable rocket. So far, Electron has deployed 177 satellites in 44 launches.
Later on, Rocket Lab is looking at creating a medium-sized reusable rocket, the Neutron, comparable to Falcon 9 (8,000 kg to LEO in fully reusable mode, 1,500 kg to Mars or Venus). The Neutron will be powered by a methane-burning rocket engine (like Starship), which seems to become the trend for the next generation of rockets.
The company is remarkable for its fully vertically integrated satellite manufacturing process, allowing it to optimize costs and design speed.
This resulted in multiple contracts with NASA & the US government, including a $515M military satellite contract and a civilian $143m contract for Globalstar.
Rocket Lab is also a major manufacturer of solar panels for satellites after its 2022 acquisitions of SolAero Technologies, with 1000+ satellites powered by these panels, and 4MW solar cells manufactured in total.
Source: Rocket Lab
For now, its launch system is reliant on outside suppliers, but a series of strategic acquisitions should change that, replicating in the launch system the vertical integration already achieved in satellite design and manufacturing.
The company is also looking at the possibility of a telecom LEO constellation to generate recurring revenues. It is also contributing to research for in-space manufacturing with Varda Space Industries and orbital debris inspection.
While SpaceX had Elon Musk’s business talent to develop its technology from scratch, Rocket Lab used a mix of R&D and acquisitions to vertically integrate the technology required. This has proven very successful in satellite manufacturing, and they are now looking to replicate this strategy for reusable rockets.
Considering the existing cash flow from satellite production & the Electron successes, Rocket Lab is a good candidate to catch up with SpaceX.
2. Virgin Galactic
The company was founded by Richard Branson and is focused on space tourism.
The tickets are in the $250,000-450,000 range, with a long waiting list. The first customers seem to be ecstatic with their experience:
“I always knew it was going to be the most extraordinary experience of my life. I always knew that. And people kind of told me it was going to be. But then when it is… and it’s on another level to the experience you thought you were going to have… then it’s very difficult to explain.”
“This has been the best day of my life, the most sensational day of my life. And you can’t get any better than that. It exceeded my wildest dreams.”
As we discussed before, space tourism might be THE center of the future Martian economy.
This is because not only will Mars provide a unique experience, but it will also have some of the most impressive features in the entirety of the solar system:
- The largest canyon in the solar system (4,000 km long, 200 km wide, and up to 7 km deep).
- A volcano of 21.9 km in height (72,000 ft) and roughly as large as France or the state of Arizona.
Source: Wikipedia
Virgin Galactic has been working on improving its unit economics, with a new launch system, the “Delta”, able to carry 6 passengers instead of 4, and to perform 8 flights/month instead of just one.
Together, these 2 improved metrics should boost revenue per unit by 12x, with a payback time of less than 6 months for each Delta shuttle. The Delta flight test is expected in mid-2025.
Source: Virgin Galactic
Markets were concerned when it was announced that Branson would not invest further into Virgin Galactic. Especially following the layoff of 185 employees and a pause of space flights in 2024, to wait for the arrival of the Delta shuttle and reduce cash burn speed.
Still, Virgin Galactic is forecasted to have enough cash to run until 2025 or 2026. So if the development of the Delta flight system goes smoothly (a risky proposition in the aerospace industry), the company should be able to focus on restarting and growing cash flow, with a system that is profitable on a unit basis. And make the company turn cash flow positive in 2026.
Source: Virgin Galactic
(It should be noted that Virgin Galactic is different from Virgin Orbit. Virgin Orbit filed for bankruptcy in April 2023, and provided launch services for small satellites, with Rocket Lab acquiring the company’s Long Beach facility, manufacturing, and tooling assets).
The recent bankruptcy of Virgin Orbit and distancing from Virgin Galactic by founder Richard Branson has damaged the company’s image with investors, resulting in a plummeting stock price in 2023 & 2024.
Source: Virgin Galactic
At the same time, the previous customers’ satisfaction, a clear plan for a profitable design (Delta shuttles), and a long waiting list of potential clients show that the company might still be viable even without raising more funds. So a lot will rely on the success of developing, manufacturing, and operating the Delta shuttle and achieving it before the end of 2025.
If this is the case, the much lower valuation would create an opportunity for investors to grab the company’s shares at a discount.